Every political alliance comes with a price. Brazil’s Bolsonaro family may have just discovered theirs.
For more than a year, they turned to Donald Trump as former President Jair Bolsonaro fought to avoid conviction over his attempted coup and escalated his confrontation with Brazil’s institutions.
Now, the US decision to slap 25% tariffs on Brazilian goods has given the family’s nemesis, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the perfect opportunity to cast himself as Brazil’s defender against foreign interference — just three months before presidential elections.
Wall Street coined the acronym TACO — Trump Always Chickens Out — to describe the US president’s tendency to back away from his toughest trade threats.
But Latin America increasingly looks like the exception.
Trump has embraced an overtly ideological approach to the region, indulging MAGA friends and openly supporting conservative candidates such as Colombia’s Abelardo de la Espriella.
His latest move against Brazil could end up producing the opposite of what he and his regional allies had hoped for.
Rather than weakening Lula, the tariffs may strengthen one of the region’s few remaining leftist leaders by allowing him to again campaign on a message of standing up to US meddling.
After all, it worked before.
In 2025, Lula’s sagging popularity recovered after he reframed his presidency around defending Brazil’s sovereignty. He can now repeat the trick.
Lula didn’t lose any time yesterday in accusing the Bolsonaro family of helping bring economic punishment upon their own country.
His Workers’ Party revived the slogan “TariFlávio,” seeking to portray Senator Flávio Bolsonaro — Lula’s election opponent — as the political face of Trump’s decision.
For Flávio Bolsonaro, the episode adds to a difficult campaign, even as he tries to distance himself from the mess he may have helped create.
After months cultivating ties with Trump, the relationship that once seemed among his greatest political assets may instead become his biggest liability. — Beatriz Reis and Daniel Carvalho